The conflict in the Arctic Circle mirrors many of the dynamics present in the South China Sea conflict, in which a competition over access to strategic positions and trade routes has expanded into a more overt conflict between great powers who see each others actions as actively hostile. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar; Raspotnik A and sthagen A (2020) How Much Is the Fish? Zombie fires, wildfires that never fully extinguish and rise up again in dry weather, are responsible for 1% of fires in the arctic circle. Alexander Island ownership has been disputed by Britain, Chile, and Argentina. The 2007 US Department of Defense review states that climate change in the Arctic is significant and urges the department to prepare and adapt to climate changes effects in the region in future decades. There are 40 different ethnic groups in the region and Indigenous peoples make up an estimated 10% of the areas inhabitants. As such, multiples Arctic states have disputed over rights to the Arctic territories to access these resources. The island is uninhabited but lays equidistant between Denmark and Canada, causing both to submit territory claims over the island. This could have drastic consequences for temperatures and weather patterns across the globe. During this period, the Arctic was characterized by high levels of militarization, which included the regional placement of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), long-range bombers, nuclear weapons, and a host of additional military resources. Indigenous groups are highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in the Arctic as they significantly rely on the environment and ecosystem for their basic needs. The Council includes the Arctic states of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and America. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press. https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2019/ArtMID/7916/ArticleID/846/Recent-Warming-in-the-Bering-Sea-and-Its-Impact-on-the-Ecosystem. This claim would have awarded Russia nearly-one half of the Arctic Ocean, including the North Pole. Color pictures and information are printed on both sides of the card. The Arctic Council has performed studies on climate changes effects in the Arctic. Rush for Arctic's resources provokes territorial tussles. over Arctic resources and necessary institutional adjustments. Davor Vidas. All eight states have territory within the Arctic Circle, including continental shelves that cross into the region. 18 February 2021: Scientists say Texas snowstorms are due to the rapid heating of the Arctic. [1] A Brookings Institution summary reported: All rights reserved. Examining the potential for conflict as major states look towards the newly accessible Arctic region with it's abundant resources Hnneland G (2014) Norway and Russia: Bargaining Precautionary Fisheries Management in the Barents Sea. the depth of institutionalisation between the states in question;25)Young O R (1989) International Cooperation: Building Regimes for Natural Resources and the Environment. MSC (2017) MSC Certificates Suspended for All North East Atlantic Mackerel Fisheries. ICES, https://nasco.int/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/CNL_17_8_ACOM_Advice.pdf. The Arctic Institute is a 501(c)3 tax exempt nonprofit organisation with a network of researchers across the world. And finally, as Arctic interests such as natural resources and transportation routes have become tied to national growth, capability, and strategy, the circumpolar north has emerged as a region of interstate competition. As noted in the US Army strategy, the contemporary militarization of the Arctic region is driven by a number of factors. The rise in tensions between the Arctic countries has caused many analysts to believe that the region could be the setting of a 21st century Cold War. Arctic States: United States, Canada, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Russia, Iceland, and Finland, Countries Outside of the United Nation Convention on the Law of the Sea: United States, Territories Under Dispute: The Northwest Passage, Hans Island, Beaufort Sea, and the Lomonosov Ridge, Arctic Sea Ice Extent: 12.95 million square kilometers (December 2021), Arctic Sea Ice Minimum: 3.92 million sq km, Arctic Sea Ice Rate of Change: 13.1% decrease per decade, Arctic Indigenous Communities: the Saami in Finland, Sweden, Norway and Russia, Nenets, Khanty, Evenk and Chukchi in Russia, Aleut, Yupik and Inuit (Iupiat) in Alaska, Inuit (Inuvialuit) in Canada and Inuit (Kalaallit) in Greenland, Arctic Ethnic Groups: 40 different ethnic groups populate the Arctic. Thereafter, we assess what lessons these examples hold for future resource conflicts in the Arctic. Titled Regaining Arctic Dominance, the document states that the Army must organize to win in the Arctic, and that the region represents an arena of competition, a line of attack in conflict, a vital area holding many natural resources, and a platform for global power projection. The US Army strategy follows similar publications from the Government of Canada, the Norwegian military, the United States Navy, and a host of other Arctic and non-Arctic state institutions committed to increased military engagement in the circumpolar north. MSC, https://www.msc.org/media-centre/press-releases/press-release/msc-certificates-suspended-for-all-north-east-atlantic-mackerel-fisheries. Despite common usage, the term does not entail outright hostility or war. In 1994, an agreement on a temporary moratorium on pollock was reached by the various national stakeholders, including Japan, China, Poland, and South Korea, with stringent enforcement measures.20)Dunlap W V (1994) A Pollock-Fishing Agreement for the Central Bering Sea. Furthermore, although fisheries disputes are, to some extent, compartmentalized, they are also increasingly entangled in domestic politics. In October 2013, the Arctic Circle conducted its inaugural Assembly. Is Beijing Creating a New Sino-Russian World Order? It is estimated the Arctic holds 13% of the worlds oil and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas reserves. Alaska Tides and Currents NOAA's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) provides local water levels, tide and current predictions, and other oceanographic and meteorological conditions for areas throughout coastal Alaska. Conflict Prevention and Regional Cooperation in the Arctic As such, even nations that are far away from the Arctic are beginning to involve themselves in its affairs, such as China, whose interests lie in the resources that the Arctic holds rather than the land itself. Dunlap W V (1994) A Pollock-Fishing Agreement for the Central Bering Sea. Svalbards Doomsday Vault: Saving Seeds for Civilization, Is The Bear Going White? On 16 March 2021, the United States Army published its new Arctic strategy. Journalism and scholarship alike questionifmilitary conflict might occur,howpeace can be maintained, andwhatwar would look like in the Arctic. Resource Conflict; These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. Brander K (2010) Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries. As sea ice diminishes in the Arctic, writings about conflict in the region have directed focus to accessing and potentially claiming undiscovered offshore oil and gas resources. The Arctic is almost entirely composed of water and is estimated to make up 20% of the worlds freshwater resource. the wind turbines are specially designed to prevent ice and be able to operate in temperature as low as -30c. Another relevant case just north of Iceland in the Barents Sea concerns snow crab and the Svalbard continental shelf. Today, the Bering Sea is home to one of the worlds largest fisheries3)Blanchet M-A, Primicerio R, Frainer A, Kortsch A, Skern-Mauritzen M, Dolgov A V, Aschan M (2019) The role of marine mammals in the Barents Sea foodweb. U.S admiral Peary planted an American flag on the North Pole, claiming that America has taken possession of the entire region. The Bering Sea and Bering Strait have long been an area of contention surrounding the harvesting and conservation of marine living resources. According to estimates from the US Geological Survey, the area north of the Arctic Circle is expected to store recoverable reserves of 90 billion barrels of oil, 1670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids (blue/purple areas on the map). A 2019 US Department of Defense report speculated that China might be exploring the logistical possibilities of establishing a military presence in the region. The George VI Ice Shelf separates Palmer Island From Alexander Island. Was there an inherent conflict between the goals of research and Genie's need to receive treatment and care? The Lucerne Valley Limestone Province products are shipped more than 3000 km east to Chicago and 3000 km southwest to Hawaii. Religious conflict and colonial violence contributed to the establishment of the eight modern Arctic states: Canada, the United States, Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Russia. Journal of Marine Systems 79 (34): 389402. Therefore, the broader legal ramifications of this dispute go beyond the right to catch snow crab on the continental shelf around Svalbard, with potential applications to sedentary resources such as oil and gas and seabed minerals. https://www.fao.org/3/CA0190EN/ca0190en.pdf. The real possibility that nations will become economically and militarily invested in the region means that media members and the general public ought to pay more attention to its geopolitics. Explore: Arctic Ocean and Coasts - NOAA's National Ocean Service Boundaries and resources There are no politically significant conflicts about maritime or territorial boundaries in the Arctic anymore. The Arctic Circle Assembly is designed to increase the international focus on the Arctic. https://fiskeribladet.no/nyheter/?artikkel=39119. MSC, https://www.msc.org/media-centre/press-releases/press-release/msc-certificates-suspended-for-all-north-east-atlantic-mackerel-fisheries. Here, the mackerel dispute can serve as a staunch lesson, as the stock lost its rather valuable MSC-certification in 2019.23)MSC (2017) MSC Certificates Suspended for All North East Atlantic Mackerel Fisheries. The forthcoming series ultimately provides useful analysis of current and potential future risks for military conflict in the Arctic regions, as well as lessons learned for the mitigation or resolution of such conflicts. In 2001, Russia claimed the Lomonosov Ridge under the reasoning that it was an extension of their continental shelf and thus a valid territorial claim. If, however, there is too much uncertainty surrounding reliable information, actors sometimes opt to ignore, be selective of, or even hide relevant information.17)Polasky S et al. Why Norway cannot resist the lure of its buried natural treasure. Russias Red Arctic objective has propelled them to maintain its military presence through its numerous airbases and border outposts. Beyond economic motivations, nations such as the United States, Russia, and China are competing in the region to project military supremacy and seek more power. The Agreement distinguishes the territory between Greenland and Canada, with Greenland being an autonomous territory under Danish sovereignty. the training exercise comes at a time when tensions between russian and europe are strong. 30 November 2021: The Arctic could get more rain than snow sooner than expected. What is the Organization for World Peace? 2. In the Arctic, retreating sea ice and climate change are altering the distribution of marine living resources, while demand for these resources has risen. A survey by McGill University of adults in Greenland, where about 90% of the local population is Indigenous, found that about 3 in 4 Greenlanders extracting and exporting sand that has been revealed by melting ice. Some elements are central here: the state and use of scientific/external advice when agreeing on quotas for marine living resources;24)Polacheck T (2012) Politics and Independent Scientific Advice in RFMO Processes: A Case Study of Crossing Boundaries. Arctic Circle Territorial Conflicts - The Organization for World Peace Russias military motivations in the region stem from its need to project strength, its perceived defensive needs, and its protection of economic interests in the region. The review recommends possible coordination between the Coast Guard and Department of Homeland Security to address gaps in Arctic communications, awareness, search and rescue, environmental observation, and forecasting capabilities. In practice, the Norwegian government permitted a limited number of licences to be issued to Norwegian fishermen exclusively, through special requests.11)sthagen A and Raspotnik A (2018) Crab! To achieve such goals the review recommends accession to UNCLOS. First, as sea ice and permafrost melt away due to climate change, lucrative Arctic resources such as oil and gas, minerals, and fish stocks become increasing accessible and occasionally disputed as nations contest territorial boundaries and the policies that delineate them. sthagen A and Raspotnik A (2018) Crab! Environmental Dtente: What can we learn from the Cold War to manage todays Arctic Tensions and Climate Crisis? Hans Island is a small 1.3 kilometer island in the Kennedy Channel of the Nares Strait, found between Canadas Ellesmere Island and Greenland (A Danish territory). In December, 2014, Denmark officially submitted a territorial claim to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) within the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) for the Lomonosov Ridge. The eight Arctic countries consist of the United States, Canada, Russia, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Iceland, and Sweden. However, the Arctic states have a history of developing co-management mechanisms to solve problems with overfishing in northern waters. Studies have suggested that the warming of the Arctic due to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere disrupts a natural phenomenon known as the polar vortex. However, it also established Canadas territorial right to the Arctic Archipelago. The Arctic also sits at a critical position between North America and Eurasia, making it a powerful strategic position from which to project military strength. The Memorandum considered Americas foreign policy in the Arctic. They all want peaceful solutions to their border disputes and see the advantages of freedom of navigation through the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage. Official Journal of the European Union (2019) Agreement to Prevent Unregulated High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic Ocean, https://publications.europa.eu/resource/cellar/f075cd03-46f3-11e9-a8ed-01aa75ed71a1.0006.03/DOC_1. We start with the Bering Sea/Strait domain, before turning to some relevant examples in the North Atlantic. Mediterranean Politics 8 (1): 5982; sgeirsdttir (2008) Who Gets What? The evidence shows that the often-evoked issue of geopolitical rush for Arctic resources is unlikely to eventuate. Ecology and Society 16 (2): 13. Upon the invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941, the Axis Powers sought to gain control of strategic northern areas such as the port city of Murmansk, a critical entry point for wartime aid to the Soviet Union; and the mining town of Petsamo, see Johansen C (2016) Hitlers Nordic Ally? Within the late 20th and early 21st centuries, Arctic states have begun to increasingly vie for territorial control over the area in hopes of exploiting its reserves of oil and natural gas. Prior to this ratification both countries were unable to explore oil and gas development in the area, which is expected to contain significant reserves. How a Dispute over Snow Crab Became a Diplomatic Headache between Norway and the EU. Compact 4" x 8" size unfolds to 8" x 22". In the EU-Norway case, politicians and diplomats actively worked to keep the issue separate from larger Arctic governance questions, preferring to treat it as a fisheries concern rather than linking it to the EUs continuous quest for a role in the Arctic.14)Raspotnik A (2018) The European Union and the Geopolitics of the Arctic. The Arctic Institutes research and capacity building projects help make the Arctic a more secure, just, and sustainable place. Both the EU and Norway define the snow crab as belonging to the continental shelf regime. Currently, Russia and Canada have claimed the most land in the region, which is demonstrative of the scope of their influence in the region. Arctic drilling could exacerbate the damage that has already been done in the region with potential oil spills, which could devastate wildlife populations. : Finland and the Total War 1939-1945. Indigenous groups include the Saami in Finland, Sweden, Norway and Russia, Nenets, Khanty, Evenk and Chukchi in Russia, Aleut, Yupik and Inuit (Iupiat) in Alaska, Inuit (Inuvialuit) in Canada and Inuit (Kalaallit) in Greenland. The melting of ice caps reveals more of the oceans dark surface, leading to increased solar heat absorption. Marine Policy 98: 5864. Even though the tantalizing opportunity of acquiring more land and resources might not be enough incentive to lure global leaders into a devastating conflict that would cost many human lives, but simply having the military in the region might be enough to start a conflict that ends up spilling over into other regions such as the aforementioned South China Sea and the Middle East. 28 July 1984: Danish Raise Flag on Disputed Hans Islands. The Guardian, 21 November, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/21/iceland-accused-of-putting-mackerel-stocks-at-risk-by-increasing-its-catch. Environmental Dtente: What can we learn from the Cold War to manage todays Arctic tensions and climate crisis. Baker M (2020) Are We Getting Invaded?: U.S. (2014) Ruling the Sea: Managing Maritime Conflicts through UNCLOS and Exclusive Economic Zones. Fisheries is indeed where the real conflict potential in the Arctic lies, but that does not mean these conflicts cannot be managed, or even resolved. The History and Future of Arctic State Conflict: The Arctic Institute One solution that states in the Arctic and beyond have used to alleviate such pressures is regional issue-specific multilateral cooperation. As a result of Russias continued attack on Ukraine, the nation has been suspended from almost all Arctic cooperation, including the Arctic Council, which is the cornerstone organization of Arctic states. scientists believe that rising temperatures help dry out the ground making it easier for these zombie fires to occur. However, as global warming reduced ice caps in the region, the treaty has failed to clarify territorial disputes, increasing tensions between the Arctic states that is only expected to increase as more of the Arctic Ocean is released beneath the ice caps. In june and july 2019, the zombie fires emitted 244 megatons of carbon dioxide. International Relations 34 (3). The Danish claim argues that the ridge is an extension of Greenlands landmass and being that Greenland is a Danish territory so is the Ridge. The Arctic Oceans warming has also created vast trading opportunities via the Northern passage. From virtually no catches prior to the stocks arrival in 2006, Icelandic fishermen caught more than 100,000 tonnes in 20082009,7)ICES (2017) ICES Advice on Fishing Opportunities, Catch, and Effort -Northeast Atlantic. Three russian nuclear ballistic missile submarines just surfaced through the arctic ice, while completing drills. 18 March 2021:PAME Releases Meeting Minutes. However, oil and gas resources in the North have not yet generated conflict or aggression. Parts of the Arctic could be dominated by rain during certain seasons rather than snow earlier than expected, as soon as 2060 or 2070. In 2017, the United States invested US$40 million in improving the Thule Air Base due to Russias escalation of military presence in the region. First, as sea ice and permafrost melt away due to climate change, lucrative Arctic resources such as oil and gas, minerals, and fish stocks become increasing accessible - and occasionally disputed as nations contest territorial boundaries and the policies that delineate them. At the same time, stocks are changing their migratory patterns because of changes in the geophysical marine environment.28)Brander K (2010) Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries. Panelists continue to discuss how Arctic cooperation and addressing of the issue of climate change can go forward without Russias participation. The implications of the Thule Air Base for conflicts outside of the Arctic can not be understated as it could detect any incoming missile from Russia, North Korea, or China.
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